tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 28% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1996 United Flight history → ORD 08:49 SJU 14:44 18% 4% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666 3h 01m Denver DEN 09:43 → SJU 17:38UA 1339 11h 38m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535 3h 12m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 10h 47m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:00 → ATL 10:06DL 1247 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 39m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 02m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09AA 2984 2h 09m Miami MIA 11:18 → SJU 14:07AA 1613 8h 07m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970 1h 29m Philadelphia PHL 09:34 → SJU 13:42AA 614 7h 42m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 7h 50m 91% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 2h 53m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 43m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:14B6 664 46m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:00 → SJU 14:38B6 1453 6h 38m 28% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON