Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2231 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2231 ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2545 ORD 19:18 → SLC 22:08 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2231 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:45	SLC 10:15	14%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 1972 United Flight history →	ORD 08:55	SLC 11:39	18%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 3129 American	ORD 08:21	SLC 11:05	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3258 American Flight history →	ORD 10:06	SLC 12:48	28%	6%	0.7%	70%
UA 1955 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	SLC 15:22	28%	7%	0.7%	77%
DL 1446 Delta	ORD 14:16	SLC 16:45	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1873 American	ORD 12:59	SLC 15:39	36%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 8101 United	ORD 20:29	SLC 22:55	36%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2545 American Flight history →	ORD 19:18	SLC 22:08	38%	9%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON