Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2145 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2145 ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest UA 1519 ORD 16:24 → SMF 18:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2145 United Flight history →	ORD 09:04	SMF 11:51	16%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 1906 American	ORD 11:47	SMF 14:29	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	ORD 19:53	SMF 22:39	28%	9%	0.6%	62%
UA 1519 United	ORD 16:24	SMF 18:53	30%	9%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	1h 18m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:34UA 2149	6h 34m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 31m	90%	78%
United Details →	ORD 14:46 → SFO 17:26UA 1577	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 18:36 → SMF 19:24UA 1862	6h 38m	76%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON