Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1304 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1304 ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1179 ORD 17:48 → SNA 20:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 1920 American	ORD 08:10	SNA 10:44	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 16:14	SNA 18:47	25%	7%	0.6%	70%
AA 1916 American	ORD 11:54	SNA 14:22	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 17:48	SNA 20:20	29%	5%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666	6h 07m	93%	85%
American Details →	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:14 → SNA 11:52AA 2454	6h 27m	80%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON