Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2287 United Flight history →	ORD 11:10	SRQ 15:12	21%	6%	1.2%	82%
OO 4699 SkyWest	ORD 07:34	SRQ 11:27	26%	7%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104	5h 18m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:16 → ATL 14:21DL 1147	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:20 → SRQ 19:57DL 3109	7h 41m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:00 → LGA 10:14DL 2633	1h 15m New York	LGA 11:29 → SRQ 13:53DL 2412	5h 53m	93%	75%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:35 → ATL 18:48DL 1477	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997	5h 52m	94%	74%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452	6h 17m	97%	73%
American Details →	ORD 16:35 → MIA 20:55AA 2323	1h 59m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	6h 24m	88%	68%
United Details →	ORD 04:49 → EWR 07:45UA 2759	52m Newark	EWR 08:37 → SRQ 11:31UA 2772	5h 42m	85%	66%
American Details →	ORD 13:21 → CLT 16:23AA 1409	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604	7h 02m	91%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 06:30 → CLT 09:37AA 1784	48m Charlotte	CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452	4h 54m	74%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON