Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Hailey on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	7h 46m	97%	86%
United Details →	ORD 12:50 → SFO 15:29UA 1097	3h 26m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	10h 01m	97%	79%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 53m	92%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON