Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2326 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2326 ORD 07:29 → TPA 11:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 353 ORD 19:17 → TPA 23:08 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2326 United Flight history →	ORD 07:29	TPA 11:22	10%	3%	1.4%	91%
UA 1834 United Flight history →	ORD 11:19	TPA 15:12	20%	5%	1.3%	83%
UA 1057 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	TPA 18:24	23%	7%	1.1%	76%
UA 2244 United	ORD 13:09	TPA 16:53	24%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2920 American Flight history →	ORD 09:30	TPA 13:21	26%	5%	1.7%	79%
UA 1393 United Flight history →	ORD 16:59	TPA 20:47	32%	9%	1.2%	62%
AA 1101 American Flight history →	ORD 14:40	TPA 18:39	34%	8%	1.7%	66%
AA 353 American Flight history →	ORD 19:17	TPA 23:08	38%	10%	1.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON