Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Tucson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2537 American Flight history →	ORD 09:45	TUS 11:47	29%	5%	0.7%	79%
OO 5928 SkyWest	ORD 12:57	TUS 14:59	34%	8%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:59 → TUS 12:35DL 937	9h 05m	99%	82%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:41UA 2806	3h 49m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	8h 32m	100%	81%
American Details →	ORD 15:21 → LAX 17:43AA 529	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 20:58 → TUS 22:38AA 6315 · flown by SkyWest	9h 17m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → TUS 20:38DL 1251	8h 59m	98%	71%
United Details →	ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246	1h 33m San Francisco	SFO 10:20 → TUS 12:40UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	97%	69%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → TUS 11:10AA 2187	8h 10m	99%	68%
United Details →	ORD 14:24 → IAH 17:16UA 2062	2h 57m Houston	IAH 20:13 → TUS 20:50UA 1976	8h 26m	95%	67%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926	8h 22m	97%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	57m Denver	DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12UA 1762	6h 00m	69%	45%
American Details →	ORD 17:18 → DFW 19:56AA 2499	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:26 → TUS 21:55AA 1580	6h 37m	74%	34%
American Details →	ORD 15:50 → DFW 18:27AA 2531	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:35 → TUS 19:51AA 1207	6h 01m	63%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON