Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 6298 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–40%.

Safest bet that day OO 6298 ORD 08:17 → TVC 10:39 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 677 ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6298 SkyWest	ORD 08:17	TVC 10:39	16%	7%	1.5%	no record
OO 5726 SkyWest	ORD 08:11	TVC 10:22	19%	6%	1.7%	no record
OO 5563 SkyWest	ORD 11:02	TVC 13:32	20%	7%	1.7%	no record
YX 3500 Republic	ORD 16:18	TVC 18:47	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:12	TVC 14:32	25%	10%	1.9%	67%
OO 4906 SkyWest	ORD 19:45	TVC 22:07	28%	9%	1.5%	no record
OO 6339 SkyWest	ORD 16:50	TVC 19:09	29%	10%	1.7%	no record
OO 5704 SkyWest	ORD 14:32	TVC 16:43	33%	9%	1.4%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	ORD 21:23	TVC 23:29	37%	11%	0.8%	63%
UA 677 United	ORD 20:14	TVC 22:25	40%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON