Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4102 at 08:14 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4102 ORD 08:14 → TYS 10:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 795 ORD 18:26 → TYS 20:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 4102 Envoy	ORD 08:14	TYS 10:59	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2035 United	ORD 07:06	TYS 09:40	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 13:38	TYS 16:20	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3699 Envoy	ORD 20:15	TYS 22:51	20%	6%	1.0%	no record
OO 5719 SkyWest	ORD 14:45	TYS 17:26	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	ORD 16:58	TYS 19:36	28%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 795 United	ORD 18:26	TYS 20:54	30%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 4551 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	TYS 09:43	17%	3%	0.0%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON