tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 4h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:00 → ATL 10:06DL 1247 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → VPS 14:11DL 2832 7h 11m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:39 → ATL 16:49DL 2894 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 03m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:16 → ATL 14:21DL 1147 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:05DL 2170 4h 49m 91% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:35 → MIA 20:55AA 2323 2h 15m Miami MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy 7h 24m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → VPS 11:28AA 2460 6h 28m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORD 11:00 → DFW 13:32AA 1106 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673 7h 38m 96% 59%
AmericanDetails → ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:46 → VPS 14:43AA 2501 6h 13m 89% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON