Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3595 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3595 ORD 06:56 → XNA 08:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G7 4399 ORD 16:11 → XNA 18:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:56	XNA 08:47	8%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 4028 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:54	XNA 13:42	17%	5%	0.9%	78%
MQ 3660 Envoy	ORD 17:11	XNA 19:05	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 3941 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:08	XNA 23:51	20%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:59	XNA 20:52	21%	7%	0.8%	96%worse than usual
G7 4498 GoJet	ORD 08:55	XNA 10:49	21%	3%	1.4%	no record
G7 4601 GoJet	ORD 12:40	XNA 14:26	28%	5%	1.9%	no record
G7 4428 GoJet	ORD 20:24	XNA 22:10	28%	6%	1.3%	no record
G7 4399 GoJet	ORD 16:11	XNA 18:00	29%	6%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON