Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2966 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2966 ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3071 ORF 15:36 → ATL 17:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2966 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:00	ATL 07:50	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1338 Delta Flight history →	ORF 08:20	ATL 10:09	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1364 Delta Flight history →	ORF 07:08	ATL 09:00	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ORF 12:41	ATL 14:38	12%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ORF 15:11	ATL 17:05	15%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ORF 17:20	ATL 19:12	25%	8%	1.0%	67%
F9 3071 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 15:36	ATL 17:41	25%	9%	1.1%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON