Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 849 at 10:41, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 849 Southwest	ORF 10:41	BNA 11:53	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 08:29 → BNA 09:34UA 1366	4h 29m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 30m	99%	86%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	1h 05m Washington	DCA 08:04 → BNA 09:17AA 5085 · flown by PSA	4h 17m	95%	83%
American Details →	ORF 05:30 → CLT 06:53AA 3130	3h 47m Charlotte	CLT 10:40 → BNA 11:09AA 1295	6h 39m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:20 → ATL 10:09DL 1338	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	6h 43m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:02 → JFK 08:20DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	3h 14m New York	JFK 11:34 → BNA 12:53DL 4662 · flown by Endeavor	6h 51m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 12:14 → JFK 13:44DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor	2h 21m New York	JFK 16:05 → BNA 17:45DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor	6h 31m	97%	78%
American Details →	ORF 08:09 → CLT 09:49AA 5036 · flown by PSA	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 12:12 → BNA 12:39AA 2409	5h 30m	93%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 19:25 → CLT 20:52AA 2519	1h 13m Charlotte	CLT 22:05 → BNA 22:32AA 1644	4h 07m	72%	55%
American Details →	ORF 14:49 → CLT 16:08AA 1211	53m Charlotte	CLT 17:01 → BNA 17:33AA 519	3h 44m	67%	45%
American Details →	ORF 18:24 → ORD 20:10AA 4164 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:10 → BNA 22:47AA 2556	5h 23m	70%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON