Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5520 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Safest bet that day AA 5520 ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5509 ORF 11:30 → DCA 12:52 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5520 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:00	DCA 06:59	5%	4%	1.3%	92%
AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 16:41	DCA 18:09	17%	8%	1.9%	50%
AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 11:30	DCA 12:52	17%	6%	1.6%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON