Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2712 Southwest	ORF 11:36	DEN 13:53	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2270 United Flight history →	ORF 08:00	DEN 10:00	15%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	3h 06m Dulles	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	8h 00m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:57 → MSP 08:58DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor	2h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	7h 08m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 52m	100%	83%
United Details →	ORF 05:58 → IAH 08:31UA 6331 · flown by Mesa	2h 06m Houston	IAH 10:37 → DEN 12:14UA 2787	8h 16m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:20 → ATL 10:09DL 1338	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	8h 38m	98%	79%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	1h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 09:30 → DEN 11:39AA 1313	7h 16m	95%	78%
American Details →	ORF 05:30 → CLT 06:53AA 3130	3h 59m Charlotte	CLT 10:52 → DEN 12:27AA 1662	8h 57m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	ORF 12:41 → ATL 14:38DL 2755	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	7h 15m	95%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 15:14 → DFW 17:37AA 2282	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235	6h 27m	63%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON