Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 14:49, is the safest bet: 44% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2274 American Flight history →	ORF 07:03	DFW 09:28	12%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 2282 American Flight history →	ORF 15:14	DFW 17:37	28%	15%	1.3%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	1h 00m Washington	DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978	5h 31m	95%	84%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	3h 08m Philadelphia	PHL 10:48 → DFW 13:22AA 3326	7h 59m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	7h 37m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:22 → MSP 09:29DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DFW 13:31DL 2970	7h 09m	90%	79%
American Details →	ORF 11:30 → DCA 12:52AA 5509 · flown by PSA	2h 21m Washington	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	7h 14m	98%	78%
American Details →	ORF 05:15 → CLT 06:36AA 3130	59m Charlotte	CLT 07:35 → DFW 09:25AA 1005	5h 10m	92%	77%
United Details →	ORF 08:00 → DEN 10:00UA 2270	3h 55m Denver	DEN 13:55 → DFW 17:01UA 578	10h 01m	98%	74%
American Details →	ORF 08:09 → CLT 09:49AA 5036 · flown by PSA	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 13:07 → DFW 14:49AA 1690	7h 40m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 15:45 → CLT 17:09AA 2200	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 18:14 → DFW 19:57AA 2815	5h 12m	68%	40%
American Details →	ORF 15:31 → PHL 16:50AA 5859 · flown by Piedmont	59m Philadelphia	PHL 17:49 → DFW 20:27AA 2533	5h 56m	62%	39%
American Details →	ORF 19:25 → CLT 20:52AA 2519	58m Charlotte	CLT 21:50 → DFW 23:39AA 1256	5h 14m	61%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON