Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1079 Delta Flight history →	ORF 06:05	DTW 07:55	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3066 Delta	ORF 12:47	DTW 14:42	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa	4h 09m	99%	88%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Washington	DCA 10:04 → DTW 11:55AA 5660 · flown by PSA	5h 55m	97%	85%
American Details →	ORF 16:41 → DCA 18:09AA 5601 · flown by PSA	2h 05m Washington	DCA 20:14 → DTW 22:06AA 4616 · flown by Republic	5h 25m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 56m	99%	84%
American Details →	ORF 05:15 → CLT 06:36AA 3130	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 08:37 → DTW 10:27AA 2582	5h 12m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:04 → LGA 07:32DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor	1h 53m New York	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	5h 20m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 12:41 → ATL 14:38DL 2755	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	6h 33m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	ORF 15:11 → ATL 17:05DL 2925	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:31DL 1232	7h 20m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON