tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4531 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record ORF 20:15 EWR 21:54 42% 42% 7.7% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 2h 20m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 51m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 08m Dulles IAD 08:15 → EWR 09:42UA 2396 3h 37m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:15 → CLT 06:36AA 3130 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 08:24 → EWR 10:14AA 1707 4h 59m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 7h 08m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 08:20 → ATL 10:09DL 1338 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:10 → EWR 15:24DL 2322 7h 04m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → ORF 08:09 → CLT 09:49AA 5036 · flown by PSA 59m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → EWR 12:45AA 1697 4h 36m 89% 72%
DeltaDetails → ORF 15:11 → ATL 17:05DL 2925 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 5h 43m 92% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → ORF 07:32 → FLL 09:53B6 1799 52m Fort Lauderdale FLL 10:45 → EWR 13:46B6 9040 6h 14m 69% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON