tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1799 at 07:32, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1799 JetBlue Flight history → ORF 07:32 FLL 09:53 26% 9% 5.0% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 15m Dulles IAD 08:22 → FLL 11:09UA 1825 5h 04m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 3h 58m Philadelphia PHL 11:38 → FLL 14:42AA 1465 8h 19m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:30 → CLT 06:53AA 3130 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 08:23 → FLL 10:29AA 1419 4h 59m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → ORF 05:58 → IAH 08:31UA 6331 · flown by Mesa 1h 46m Houston IAH 10:17 → FLL 14:06UA 2670 8h 08m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA 1h 04m Washington DCA 08:03 → FLL 10:55AA 1893 4h 55m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:59 → LGA 09:28DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor 1h 47m New York LGA 11:15 → FLL 14:18DL 1181 6h 19m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 7h 19m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 17:20 → ATL 19:12DL 1101 46m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489 4h 36m 63% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON