Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1524 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Safest bet that day UA 1524 ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 591 ORF 19:52 → IAD 21:06 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1524 United Flight history →	ORF 06:05	IAD 07:07	7%	3%	0.7%	95%
UA 591 United	ORF 19:52	IAD 21:06	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4831 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 15:00	IAD 16:10	20%	20%	0.0%	80%
UA 4810 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 19:59	IAD 21:13	21%	10%	5.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON