tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 33m Dulles IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 5h 54m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 25m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → IAH 11:11DL 1682 6h 11m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → ORF 15:11 → ATL 17:05DL 2925 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327 5h 53m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:22 → MSP 09:29DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 11:05 → IAH 13:58DL 2673 7h 36m 90% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:15 → CLT 06:36AA 3130 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 08:29 → IAH 10:10AA 2445 5h 55m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 1h 02m Philadelphia PHL 08:42 → IAH 11:20AA 840 5h 57m 90% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:04 → LGA 07:32DL 5334 · flown by Endeavor 1h 27m New York LGA 08:59 → IAH 11:38DL 2099 6h 34m 91% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORF 14:44 → LGA 16:21DL 4893 · flown by Endeavor 59m New York LGA 17:20 → IAH 20:40DL 2109 6h 56m 65% 52%
AmericanDetails → ORF 18:24 → ORD 20:10AA 4164 · flown by Envoy 57m Chicago ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51AA 3144 6h 27m 70% 45%
AmericanDetails → ORF 15:14 → DFW 17:37AA 2282 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 40m 71% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON