Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4220 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4220 Southwest	ORF 08:51	MCO 11:01	11%	3%	4.6%	no record
F9 3783 Frontier Flight history →	ORF 21:11	MCO 23:29	23%	9%	3.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MCO 11:08UA 379	5h 03m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → MCO 14:34DL 1372	7h 26m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	6h 00m	98%	76%
American Details →	ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA	3h 29m Philadelphia	PHL 11:09 → MCO 13:55AA 3268	7h 32m	98%	76%
American Details →	ORF 05:15 → CLT 06:36AA 3130	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:36 → MCO 10:20AA 2170	5h 05m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	ORF 08:20 → ATL 10:09DL 1338	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:56 → MCO 14:23DL 1576	6h 03m	98%	73%
American Details →	ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA	1h 23m Washington	DCA 08:22 → MCO 10:57AA 2128	4h 57m	96%	73%
American Details →	ORF 16:41 → DCA 18:09AA 5601 · flown by PSA	2h 03m Washington	DCA 20:12 → MCO 22:43AA 2139	6h 02m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORF 15:31 → PHL 16:50AA 5859 · flown by Piedmont	1h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 17:59 → MCO 20:44AA 646	5h 13m	68%	47%
JetBlue Details →	ORF 07:32 → FLL 09:53B6 1799	47m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 10:40 → MCO 11:50B6 2548	4h 18m	63%	40%
American Details →	ORF 15:45 → CLT 17:09AA 2200	56m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → MCO 20:01AA 612	4h 16m	56%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON