Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1334 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1334 Southwest	ORF 07:51	MDW 09:15	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 949 Southwest	ORF 16:56	MDW 18:20	20%	4%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	ORF 17:20 → ATL 19:12DL 1101	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 55m	87%	70%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	55m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 09m	90%	67%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:22 → MSP 09:29DL 5464 · flown by Endeavor	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 47m	92%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON