tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 756 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 756 American Flight history → ORF 06:00 MIA 08:24 15% 4% 1.1% 90%
MQ 3799 Envoy ORF 17:03 MIA 19:33 40% 12% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 38m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079 1h 27m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 23m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → DCA 06:59AA 5520 · flown by PSA 3h 03m Washington DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401 6h 58m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510 5h 03m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → ORF 16:41 → DCA 18:09AA 5601 · flown by PSA 2h 55m Washington DCA 21:04 → MIA 23:48AA 2214 7h 07m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 5h 59m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:02 → JFK 08:20DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor 2h 48m New York JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514 7h 20m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORF 05:30 → CLT 06:53AA 3130 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 09:11 → MIA 11:19AA 3184 5h 49m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORF 19:25 → CLT 20:52AA 2519 52m Charlotte CLT 21:44 → MIA 23:43AA 3068 4h 18m 45% 29%
UnitedDetails → ORF 17:49 → EWR 19:41UA 4575 · flown by GoJet 52m Newark EWR 20:33 → MIA 23:44UA 791 5h 55m 47% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON