Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5464 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORF 07:22	MSP 09:29	15%	10%	1.4%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Norfolk). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 08:31 → MSP 10:10UA 2604	5h 05m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	7h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1079	1h 05m Detroit	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	4h 49m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 31m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ORF 07:00 → JFK 08:20DL 5356 · flown by Endeavor	3h 15m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	7h 50m	97%	83%
American Details →	ORF 05:15 → CLT 06:36AA 3130	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 08:47 → MSP 10:35AA 2972	6h 20m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	ORF 12:41 → ATL 14:38DL 2755	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 34m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	ORF 17:20 → ATL 19:12DL 1101	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 19m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON