Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4528 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 4528 ORF 06:41 → ORD 08:20 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1251 ORF 16:59 → ORD 18:16 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4528 Republic	ORF 06:41	ORD 08:20	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 3668 Republic	ORF 06:14	ORD 07:17	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
YX 4448 Republic	ORF 12:12	ORD 13:39	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
YX 3674 Republic	ORF 12:56	ORD 14:28	19%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 4164 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORF 18:24	ORD 20:10	30%	8%	1.8%	72%
UA 1251 United	ORF 16:59	ORD 18:16	31%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON