tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORF 06:05 → IAD 07:07UA 1524 1h 27m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 29m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORF 07:08 → ATL 09:00DL 1364 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 9h 31m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → ORF 06:00 → ATL 07:50DL 2966 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40AA 5088 · flown by PSA 1h 54m Philadelphia PHL 09:34 → SJU 13:42AA 614 7h 19m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → ORF 15:11 → ATL 17:05DL 2925 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 7h 18m 94% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORF 06:00 → MIA 08:24AA 756 2h 54m Miami MIA 11:18 → SJU 14:07AA 1613 8h 07m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → ORF 05:58 → IAH 08:31UA 6331 · flown by Mesa 1h 32m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 44m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORF 08:09 → CLT 09:49AA 5036 · flown by PSA 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 6h 41m 91% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON