Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2802 MCO 09:56 → SFO 12:54 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 369 MCO 21:51 → SFO 23:48 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2802 United	MCO 09:56	SFO 12:54	15%	6%	5.5%	no record
UA 324 United	MCO 14:56	SFO 17:56	22%	7%	7.0%	no record
AS 369 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 21:51	SFO 23:48	24%	8%	2.5%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	7h 25m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON