Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2436 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 2436 MCO 07:00 → BOS 10:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1152 MCO 16:09 → BOS 19:20 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2436 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	BOS 10:10	6%	2%	7.2%	94%
F9 1978 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:30	BOS 10:44	11%	3%	9.1%	93%
B6 852 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:12	BOS 10:12	14%	5%	9.0%	61%
DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:16	BOS 14:22	16%	5%	4.5%	82%
B6 552 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:10	BOS 13:13	18%	7%	4.5%	90%
DL 1474 Delta	MCO 19:55	BOS 22:59	20%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 987 American	MCO 13:12	BOS 16:19	26%	7%	6.3%	no record
B6 252 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:35	BOS 15:44	33%	12%	5.0%	61%
B6 1952 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 20:30	BOS 23:40	36%	18%	1.9%	58%
B6 2052 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:25	BOS 17:30	37%	19%	5.0%	55%
B6 1152 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:09	BOS 19:20	41%	18%	3.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON