Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3885 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3885 MCO 07:12 → DAL 08:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2457 MCO 17:55 → DFW 19:56 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3885 Southwest	MCO 07:12	DAL 08:57	7%	2%	8.8%	no record
AA 2677 American Flight history →	MCO 05:30	DFW 07:26	8%	3%	10.5%	93%
F9 4017 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:40	DFW 07:33	11%	3%	13.2%	83%
WN 21 Southwest	MCO 09:51	DAL 11:50	12%	3%	8.0%	no record
AA 599 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	DFW 09:29	14%	4%	9.3%	89%
AA 2961 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	DFW 10:24	15%	5%	7.5%	93%
WN 2704 Southwest	MCO 11:11	DAL 13:10	16%	4%	7.1%	no record
F9 2885 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:06	DFW 12:13	17%	6%	7.0%	83%
AA 2075 American Flight history →	MCO 09:30	DFW 11:24	18%	5%	6.9%	84%
WN 3059 Southwest	MCO 14:21	DAL 16:20	21%	5%	11.0%	no record
WN 1376 Southwest	MCO 15:46	DAL 17:45	23%	6%	5.4%	no record
WN 2706 Southwest	MCO 16:56	DAL 18:55	26%	6%	5.4%	no record
AA 2136 American Flight history →	MCO 12:55	DFW 14:50	26%	8%	5.1%	59%
AA 1606 American	MCO 14:36	DFW 16:29	28%	8%	5.2%	no record
WN 1453 Southwest	MCO 19:46	DAL 21:45	30%	8%	6.4%	no record
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MCO 15:38	DFW 17:35	31%	10%	4.3%	70%
WN 8700 Southwest	MCO 20:01	DAL 21:55	32%	8%	7.5%	no record
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:39	DFW 20:41	33%	17%	16.1%	76%
AA 3118 American	MCO 17:28	DFW 19:30	36%	11%	5.7%	no record
AA 2457 American	MCO 17:55	DFW 19:56	36%	12%	5.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON