Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 484 at 06:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 484 MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4991 MCO 16:26 → LAX 18:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 484 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:28	LAX 08:35	9%	3%	4.6%	95%
DL 504 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:45	LAX 11:49	16%	4%	4.6%	92%
F9 4145 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:31	LAX 17:58	16%	6%	5.1%	80%
UA 1316 United	MCO 15:25	LAX 17:37	17%	6%	1.9%	no record
DL 1051 Delta	MCO 17:09	LAX 19:19	18%	6%	3.5%	no record
UA 325 United	MCO 08:53	LAX 11:08	18%	4%	4.3%	no record
AA 1205 American Flight history →	MCO 12:00	LAX 14:16	24%	6%	4.5%	61%
WN 4991 Southwest	MCO 16:26	LAX 18:57	26%	7%	1.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 18m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:44DL 2204	56m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	7h 07m	87%	73%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 18m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 30m	93%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON