Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2894 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2894 MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2894 American Flight history →	MCO 06:01	MIA 07:12	11%	3%	6.3%	90%
AA 1733 American Flight history →	MCO 07:34	MIA 08:46	17%	4%	7.0%	90%
WN 2731 Southwest	MCO 10:31	MIA 11:59	19%	5%	5.4%	no record
AA 548 American	MCO 08:54	MIA 10:11	21%	5%	6.3%	no record
AA 2240 American Flight history →	MCO 10:00	MIA 11:15	22%	5%	4.1%	88%
AA 366 American	MCO 11:18	MIA 12:31	25%	7%	5.4%	no record
WN 1917 Southwest	MCO 10:31	FLL 11:45	26%	5%	11.1%	no record
WN 4950 Southwest	MCO 20:56	MIA 22:14	29%	10%	2.1%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	30%	11%	7.2%	80%
WN 4941 Southwest	MCO 20:56	FLL 22:10	30%	8%	3.2%	no record
AA 1642 American Flight history →	MCO 20:25	MIA 21:46	34%	12%	2.1%	66%
AA 1635 American	MCO 15:49	MIA 17:02	37%	9%	4.5%	no record
AA 1610 American	MCO 19:26	MIA 20:45	38%	11%	2.2%	no record
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	38%	17%	3.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON