Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 777 at 10:51, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 777 Alaska Flight history →	PAE 10:51	LAS 13:21	15%	4%	1.1%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon	1h 11m Portland	PDX 14:45 → LAS 16:54AS 778	4h 21m	94%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PAE 11:05 → SFO 13:16AS 2139 · flown by Horizon	46m San Francisco	SFO 14:02 → LAS 15:34AS 776	4h 29m	31%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON