Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 747 Alaska Flight history →	PAE 07:07	PHX 09:55	16%	3%	1.2%	88%
AS 515 Alaska Flight history →	PAE 14:52	PHX 17:50	23%	7%	0.9%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 12:33 → PDX 13:34AS 2365 · flown by Horizon	52m Portland	PDX 14:26 → PHX 17:02AS 716	4h 29m	82%	64%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:00 → SAN 10:53AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	2h 16m San Diego	SAN 13:09 → PHX 14:31AS 2024 · flown by Horizon	6h 31m	99%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON