Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, QX 2096 at 14:15, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


QX 2096 Horizon	PAE 14:15	SFO 16:29	33%	12%	3.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PAE 12:27 → LAX 15:10AS 2278 · flown by Horizon	2h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 17:23 → SFO 18:44AS 361	6h 17m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	PAE 08:26 → SAN 11:21AS 2437 · flown by Horizon	3h 10m San Diego	SAN 14:31 → SFO 16:02AS 493	7h 36m	100%	63%
Alaska Details →	PAE 10:51 → LAS 13:21AS 777	3h 24m Las Vegas	LAS 16:45 → SFO 18:16AS 634	7h 25m	100%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON