tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AS 425 at 07:39, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 425 Alaska PDX 07:39 ABQ 11:21 6% 2% 1.0% no record
AS 2268 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 07:01 ABQ 10:57 6% 1% 0.3% 94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:31 → SLC 12:20DL 1203 3h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 15:44 → ABQ 17:33DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → PDX 16:15 → DEN 19:51UA 1787 1h 11m Denver DEN 21:02 → ABQ 22:30UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 5h 15m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 47m Denver DEN 11:18 → ABQ 12:43UA 476 6h 43m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 49m Salt Lake City SLC 20:55 → ABQ 22:40DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest 4h 26m 86% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 1h 52m Seattle SEA 08:27 → ABQ 12:45DL 3911 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 06m Denver DEN 13:30 → ABQ 14:57UA 1594 5h 07m 94% 79%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 2h 33m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 6h 34m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → PDX 06:00 → DFW 11:47AA 982 1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:06 → ABQ 13:56AA 3777 · flown by Envoy 6h 56m 94% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:08 → SEA 09:02AS 376 48m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 4h 45m 23% 19%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON