Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 1406 PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1455 PDX 17:58 → ANC 20:40 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 1406 Alaska	PDX 14:31	ANC 17:35	16%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 775 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 11:00	ANC 13:46	17%	2%	0.8%	81%
AS 1455 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:58	ANC 20:40	19%	3%	0.8%	87%
AS 2192 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:30	ANC 00:25	21%	7%	1.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON