Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 662 PDX 07:00 → ATL 14:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 539 PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 662 Delta Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ATL 14:43	9%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 2060 Delta	PDX 22:58	ATL 06:42	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	PDX 14:08	ATL 22:00	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
AS 784 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:30	ATL 15:15	16%	4%	0.8%	79%
DL 539 Delta Flight history →	PDX 11:37	ATL 19:21	17%	5%	0.7%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	6h 59m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 54m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PDX 09:31 → SLC 12:20DL 1203	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 51m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON