Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 540 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	AUS 16:38	18%	4%	0.8%	86%
AS 1370 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:39	AUS 23:49	21%	6%	0.9%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55DL 3950 · flown by SkyWest	7h 22m	97%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:42 → AUS 13:02UA 1026	6h 02m	97%	84%
United Details →	PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780	1h 12m Houston	IAH 07:44 → AUS 08:53UA 2376	6h 44m	93%	84%
United Details →	PDX 08:17 → IAD 16:33UA 2016	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35UA 2337	10h 18m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	2h 42m Los Angeles	LAX 16:00 → AUS 20:59DL 622	8h 06m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PDX 07:00 → ATL 14:43DL 662	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → AUS 18:50DL 1491	9h 50m	98%	79%
United Details →	PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	6h 08m	95%	79%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	3h 56m San Francisco	SFO 10:57 → AUS 16:39UA 2432	9h 24m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PDX 14:07 → DFW 19:56AA 2496	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:51 → AUS 22:04AA 576	5h 57m	66%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON