Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Nashville on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1376 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:30	BNA 17:00	20%	4%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724	6h 25m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 13:02 → BNA 15:10DL 2101	7h 10m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	6h 41m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 19:19 → BNA 23:30DL 2317	8h 15m	99%	84%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:42 → BNA 13:25UA 355	6h 25m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	1h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 15:16 → BNA 21:21DL 858	8h 28m	98%	83%
United Details →	PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47UA 2174	7h 38m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 01m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON