tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 436 Alaska Flight history → PDX 21:56 BOS 06:20 12% 3% 0.7% 80%
AS 358 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:00 BOS 15:30 13% 4% 0.8% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:47DL 2649 7h 14m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657 7h 51m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:09 → IAH 06:32UA 780 1h 56m Houston IAH 08:28 → BOS 13:04UA 1207 9h 55m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 08:18 → BOS 17:16UA 2647 9h 01m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 09m Denver DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232 7h 44m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 13:27 → BOS 17:24DL 2558 8h 24m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 10h 43m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 19:20 → SFO 21:09UA 2615 1h 56m San Francisco SFO 23:05 → BOS 08:01 +1UA 1665 9h 41m 93% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 12:01 → DFW 17:49AA 2655 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:39 → BOS 23:41AA 1268 8h 40m 60% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON