tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 09:33 → BWI 17:57UA 2664 9h 42m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 07:00 → ATL 14:43DL 662 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 9h 45m 99% 81%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 9h 04m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 45m Denver DEN 14:09 → BWI 19:30UA 363 7h 40m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13UA 2306 1h 31m Chicago ORD 14:44 → BWI 17:48UA 2737 7h 48m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:09 → SEA 08:03AS 427 1h 00m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 6h 55m 73% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON