tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2022 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 10:30 BZN 13:10 10% 2% 0.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:31 → SLC 12:20DL 1203 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 15:51 → BZN 17:14DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 100% 90%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 1h 13m Seattle SEA 07:06 → BZN 09:46AS 2141 · flown by Horizon 3h 46m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971 5h 20m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:46 → BZN 13:38UA 741 7h 38m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 06m Denver DEN 13:30 → BZN 15:18UA 513 5h 28m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 2h 57m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 24m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 7h 21m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 55m Seattle SEA 11:50 → BZN 14:45DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 4h 13m 72% 60%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:54 → SEA 19:03DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 56m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BZN 22:49DL 4039 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m 72% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON