tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 2873 at 21:34, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2873 American PDX 21:34 CLT 05:12 18% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 07:05 → CLT 10:35DL 1912 7h 02m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 6h 59m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → CLT 16:27DL 2819 7h 27m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 22m Denver DEN 09:53 → CLT 15:17UA 2231 7h 17m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 9h 21m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 1h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:30 → CLT 16:27DL 2070 7h 42m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 07:00 → ATL 14:43DL 662 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158 8h 24m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → PDX 09:00 → PHX 11:38AA 2658 2h 15m Phoenix PHX 13:53 → CLT 21:07AA 1591 9h 07m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 12:01 → DFW 17:49AA 2655 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:50 → CLT 22:29AA 3002 7h 28m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON