Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 459 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day UA 459 PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 1375 PDX 15:38 → DEN 18:37 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 459 United Flight history →	PDX 05:00	DEN 08:31	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 3312 Southwest	PDX 06:41	DEN 10:18	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2375 United Flight history →	PDX 08:50	DEN 12:24	7%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 1429 United	PDX 10:35	DEN 14:26	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1787 United Flight history →	PDX 16:15	DEN 19:51	10%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 3866 United	PDX 15:51	DEN 19:43	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1411 United Flight history →	PDX 12:50	DEN 16:28	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 3313 Southwest	PDX 10:36	DEN 14:18	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 450 Southwest	PDX 18:59	DEN 22:27	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2303 Southwest	PDX 12:51	DEN 16:28	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:47	DEN 14:12	15%	3%	0.7%	90%
AS 1375 Alaska	PDX 15:38	DEN 18:37	28%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON