Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 539 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day AS 539 PDX 06:58 → DFW 12:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2496 PDX 14:07 → DFW 19:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 539 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 06:58	DFW 12:42	10%	3%	0.9%	94%
AA 982 American Flight history →	PDX 06:00	DFW 11:47	12%	4%	1.5%	83%
AA 371 American Flight history →	PDX 07:00	DFW 12:45	16%	5%	1.4%	85%
AA 1132 American	PDX 07:52	DFW 13:33	18%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 2655 American Flight history →	PDX 12:01	DFW 17:49	27%	10%	1.5%	76%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	PDX 14:07	DFW 19:56	29%	10%	1.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON