Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1327 at 13:15, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1327 Delta	PDX 13:15	DTW 20:26	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	8h 09m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:00 → MSP 11:14DL 2369	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 12:59 → DTW 15:41DL 1519	6h 41m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270	1h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	6h 27m	99%	88%
United Details →	PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896	2h 02m San Francisco	SFO 09:03 → DTW 16:30UA 1286	8h 15m	99%	86%
United Details →	PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459	1h 04m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:26UA 1915	6h 26m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975	2h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 15:50 → DTW 23:19DL 708	9h 26m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551	2h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 22:24 → DTW 05:48 +1DL 407	9h 11m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 07:00 → ATL 14:43DL 662	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	9h 14m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PDX 12:01 → DFW 17:49AA 2655	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36AA 3108	7h 35m	71%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON