Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3043 PDX 21:24 → EUG 22:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 3042 PDX 14:34 → EUG 15:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 3043 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 21:24	EUG 22:23	10%	3%	1.0%	94%
AS 3042 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 14:34	EUG 15:29	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
AS 2078 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 14:30	EUG 15:18	7%	0%	0.0%	93%
AS 2088 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:40	EUG 22:28	19%	8%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON