Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 294 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day AS 294 PDX 07:40 → EWR 16:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 1701 PDX 10:50 → EWR 19:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 294 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:40	EWR 16:05	14%	5%	1.4%	83%
UA 1802 United Flight history →	PDX 22:52	EWR 07:06	16%	5%	0.9%	87%
UA 1701 United	PDX 10:50	EWR 19:15	25%	10%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 07:05 → EWR 10:45DL 2864	7h 12m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:45 → MSP 19:03DL 2167	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	7h 11m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PDX 13:15 → SLC 16:07DL 1209	1h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → EWR 23:54DL 2038	7h 39m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON